Three weeks into the US-Iran war, a troubling pattern was emerging: neither side had a clear plan to win, and both sides had strong incentives to keep fighting. Iran’s strategy, as the International Crisis Group explained, was to survive, retaliate, and prolong the conflict until better terms could be negotiated. The United States, meanwhile, was bombing Iran’s oil infrastructure, calling for allied naval support, and refusing to negotiate — but without publicly defining what victory would look like or how it would end. The result was an open-ended conflict that was killing thousands and threatening the global economy.
President Trump said publicly on Saturday the terms for a deal were not yet good enough and refused to provide a timeline for ending the war. He said in public remarks that Kharg Island had been effectively demolished and called on allied nations to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz. He named China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK. His simultaneous threats to destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure and calls for international naval support suggested a strategy that was still taking shape rather than one already fully formed.
Iran was clearer about its goals if not its methods. Its strategy of closing the Strait of Hormuz, striking Gulf energy infrastructure, and coordinating attacks on US targets across the region was designed to impose costs that would ultimately force Washington to the negotiating table. The strategy was having measurable economic effects — oil prices were approaching $120 per barrel — but had not yet produced political results in the United States. Iran continued the campaign on Saturday with ballistic missiles striking Fujairah and rockets aimed at Israel.
Israel conducted dozens of airstrikes inside Iran, killing at least 15 people in Isfahan. Iranian commanders threatened any Gulf energy facility with American ties. The foreign minister called on Arab states to expel US forces. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran’s leadership was “desperate and hiding” and wounded. Iranian officials confirmed Khamenei’s injury but dismissed its severity. The USS Tripoli and 2,500 additional US marines were heading to the region, expanding American military options without specifying their purpose.
The human and economic costs of the war without a victory plan were becoming severe. More than 1,400 Iranians had been killed. Thirteen Israelis and roughly 20 Gulf residents had died. Lebanon’s crisis continued, with 800 killed and 850,000 displaced from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Six US troops died in an aircraft crash in Iraq. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck, and Americans in Iraq were ordered to leave. Without a clear definition of victory from either side, the war threatened to continue until the costs became so high that one or both parties had no choice but to seek terms.